Key takeaways
- Public indicators answer market questions; internal records answer company questions.
- A reproducible brief records definitions, observation dates, revisions, and missing data.
- Triangulation is stronger when measures are not treated as interchangeable.
Freight analysis fails when a market indicator is presented as a company result. A public freight value, a diesel benchmark, a producer price index, and a carrier's revenue per mile each have a different unit and boundary.
Methodology
This workflow pairs the BTS Freight Analysis Framework and annual report with EIA, BLS, Census, FMCSA, and FHWA context. For each measure, record publisher, series, unit, geography, observation date, retrieval date, seasonal adjustment, and revision status.
Findings
| Question | Public context | Internal control |
|---|---|---|
| Is freight activity expanding? | BTS tons and value | booked loads and miles |
| Are operating inputs moving? | EIA and BLS indices | invoices and settlements |
| Is labor availability changing? | BLS employment data | recruiting funnel and retention |
| Is compliance exposure changing? | FMCSA public records | inspection and corrective-action log |
BTS's 2025 annual report table puts 2024 truck freight value at $18.079 trillion. That is a national flow estimate, not a carrier revenue forecast. Use it to frame scale and mode share, then move to lane-level evidence.
Operational interpretation
Build a one-page monthly brief with a source table, three market indicators, five internal KPIs, and a data-quality section. Annotate breaks in series and avoid comparing nominal dollars across years without stating the price basis. Keep a copy of the source query or table filter.
The research hub provides related source-led briefs. Operations support can help maintain the recurring packet without receiving authority to approve pricing or compliance decisions.
Limitations
Public estimates use models, surveys, revisions, and classification systems. FAF values are not booked shipments and can change after methodology updates. Internal systems may have missing or duplicated loads.
Sources
- BTS, Transportation Statistics Annual Report.
- BTS, Freight Facts and Figures.
- BTS, Freight Analysis Framework.
- Census, Transportation sector.
- EIA, Short-Term Energy Outlook.
- BLS, Producer Price Index.
- BLS, Current Employment Statistics.
- FMCSA, SAFER.
- FHWA, Highway Statistics.
- EIA, petroleum data.
Sources and citations
- BTS, Transportation Statistics Annual Report 2025, https://www.bts.gov/tsar, retrieved 2026-08-05
- BTS, Freight Facts and Figures, https://www.bts.gov/faf, retrieved 2026-08-05
- BTS, Freight Analysis Framework, https://faf.ornl.gov/faf5/, retrieved 2026-08-05
- U.S. Census Bureau, Economic Census Transportation, https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/economic-census/guidance/sector/transportation.html, retrieved 2026-08-05
- EIA, Short-Term Energy Outlook, https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/, retrieved 2026-08-05
- BLS, Producer Price Index, https://www.bls.gov/ppi/, retrieved 2026-08-05
- BLS, Current Employment Statistics, https://www.bls.gov/ces/, retrieved 2026-08-05
- FMCSA, SAFER, https://safer.fmcsa.dot.gov/, retrieved 2026-08-05
- FHWA, Highway Statistics, https://www.fhwa.dot.gov/policyinformation/statistics.cfm, retrieved 2026-08-05
- EIA, petroleum data, https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/data.php, retrieved 2026-08-05